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In this episode, I discuss the congressional politics of the court vacancy. Here are the relevant links from each point.
Point #1- There’s no chance a Justice won’t be confirmed if there are 50 votes for the justice. You almost certainly can’t stop this procedurally if you are the Democrats.
James Wallner discussing the procedures for confirming a judicial nomination.
My tweetstorm on the Senate rules regarding the requirement of holding an impeachment trial.
My tweetstorm on the problems with denying a quorum.
My tweetstorm on shaping understandings rather than preventing actions.
Point #2 – And there’s almost certainly going to be 50 votes. Electorally vulnerable Senators just aren’t going to break with the party here.
My old post on how opinion polls about policy don’t translate to votes.
Point #3 – Parties don’t simply have a goal of maximizing their seats in Congress.
Anthony Downs’ theory of party competition.
Point #4 – Hardball politics is both new and not new.
Josh Chafetz’s on unprecedented things in judicial nominations.
Me on hardball politics and what’s new and not new.
Mark Tushnet on Constitutional hardball.
Francis Lee on insecure majorities and party competition.
Matt Green on hardball politics in Congress, then and now.
The Washington Post Op-ed from seven freshmen Democrats.
Point #5 – Democratic hardball retaliation is not a certainty.
Ezra Klein and Matt Yglesias recent podcast on the changing Senate.
Joseph Fishkin and David Pozen on asymmetric constitutional hardball.
Me on constitutional hardball and statehood.
